China’s Clean-Tech Exports Set to Significantly Reduce Global CO2 Emissions
In a striking development, China’s exports of clean-energy technologies—such as solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles—are projected to contribute to a 2% reduction in global carbon emissions by 2026, according to a recent analysis.
Authored by:
Lauri Myllyvirta, Lead Analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air
The assessment indicates that the global impact of these Chinese exports on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions surged by 26% year-on-year in the initial three quarters of 2026, following a 36% rise in 2025.
This analysis, conducted for Carbon Brief, utilizes comprehensive data regarding clean-tech product exports, destination countries’ electricity systems, and the emissions associated with manufacturing in China.
If these trends persist through the remainder of the year, Chinese clean-tech exports in 2026 are anticipated to prevent approximately 450 million tonnes of CO2 emissions, equivalent to Brazil’s annual carbon output.
Key Findings from the Analysis
- Electric vehicle and heavy vehicle shipments grew by 61% year-on-year in early 2026, while wind turbines rose by 45%, batteries increased by 39%, solar technologies by 22%, and electric two-wheelers by 21%.
- Over their operational lifetimes, these exports in 2026 are on track to avoid 8,400 million tonnes of CO2—equal to the combined annual emissions of the United States and India.
- This projected lifetime emissions avoidance represents a 25% increase from the 6,800 million tonnes avoided in 2025 and a 66% rise from 5,000 million tonnes in 2024.
- In terms of energy production, wind and solar equipment exports from China in 2026 are expected to generate electricity equivalent to approximately 100 coal-fired power plants annually.
- While most clean-tech exports by value were directed toward the Global North, 76% of lifetime avoided emissions were concentrated in the Global South, particularly in South and Southeast Asia, where solar installations are deployed on high-carbon power grids.
- Chinese-owned clean energy projects abroad doubled from 2022 to 2025, yet the CO2 emissions avoided remain minor compared to equipment exports.
The data indicates that China’s clean-energy exports have largely been complementary to the growth of new markets, allowing other producers to maintain their sales volumes.
Moreover, while clean-energy sales domestically are greater than exports for the majority of technologies, a slowdown in the solar sector could intensify trade tensions unless addressed.
China Emerges as Leader in Clean-Tech Production
China has solidified its position as a dominant producer of clean-energy technologies, including solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, and electric vehicles.
The bulk of China’s clean-tech production targets its domestic market; however, its substantial export activities are also contributing to significant reductions in global CO2 emissions.
Prior analyses for Carbon Brief estimated that clean-energy exports in 2024 would curb emissions outside China by approximately 1%. The latest findings suggest a much more substantial impact, with a projected avoidance of 450 million tonnes of CO2—almost 2% of total global emissions outside the country.
Solar Exports and Their Emissions Reduction Effect
According to the analysis, China’s solar equipment exports are the primary catalyst for international decarbonization efforts.
During 2025, China exported solar panels and intermediate products with a combined generating capacity of 436 gigawatts (GW) once operationalized. Additionally, wind turbines totaling 8GW were exported, cumulatively generating around 720 terawatt-hours (TWh) annually—this figure is expected to reach approximately 800 TWh in 2026, equivalent to the production from 100 coal-fired power plants.
When considering their lifetime impacts, solar exports alone are projected to prevent an estimated 6,400 million tonnes of CO2 emissions in 2025, far surpassing the emissions avoidance contributed by wind turbines.
In 2025, 39 million electric vehicles were exported from China, which included 36 million two-wheelers, 2.2 million battery electric cars, and various other vehicles. The exported batteries possessed a combined capacity of 305 gigawatt-hours (GWh), enough to power an additional 5 million battery electric cars.
Global South Makes Significant Contributions to Avoided Emissions
Data shows that in 2025, a remarkable 73% of the CO2 emissions avoided by China’s clean-tech exports occurred in Global South countries, which also accounted for a staggering 87% of the year-on-year growth.
During the first three quarters of 2026, almost all increases in avoided emissions originated from Global South nations, reflecting a trend in larger export volumes affecting more carbon-intensive power grids.
Regional Analysis of Clean-Tech Exports
South Asia recognized the largest avoided emissions resulting from imports of Chinese clean-tech, with strong growth in 2025 and early 2026. Other significant regions included Southeast Asia, North America, Europe, and the Middle East, showcasing the global influence of China’s clean-tech exports.
Notably, the United States recorded the second-highest level of emissions avoidance after India, experiencing a 12% uptick in 2026, despite heightened tariffs. In contrast, the EU imports a larger variety of clean-energy technologies than the US but showcases lower avoided emissions due to differing solar outputs.
Overseas Clean Energy Projects Expand
In tandem with its export portfolio, China’s involvement in international clean energy projects is on the rise, a trend initiated by President Xi Jinping’s 2021 pledge to support developing nations in enhancing green energy capabilities.
By July 2026, around 69GW of China-linked renewable projects were operational overseas, with an additional 100GW under construction and 280GW planned. Moreover, China has financed six operational nuclear reactors abroad, mainly in Pakistan.
Nonetheless, gaps exist in fulfilling the pledges surrounding coal project cessation, notably regarding industrial-linked coal projects in Indonesia, raising questions about China’s credibility in this domain.
While China’s overseas clean-energy project counts are growing, they still lag considerably behind the scale of the country’s equipment exports.
China’s Exports Foster Market Growth
Despite concerns regarding potential impacts of China’s industrial “overcapacity” on domestic industries, the evidence suggests Chinese clean-tech exports have largely stimulated market growth rather than crowding out competition.
For instance, export values of electric vehicles from other nations have surged, particularly from the EU and North America, alongside a similar trend for solar equipment. However, the wind sector has experienced displacement due to increased exports from China.
China’s role as a pivotal player in the global clean-energy transition indicates a growing self-interest in sustaining the economic viability of clean-tech production, contributing significantly to GDP growth and net exports.
The declining prices of clean technologies have forced other exporters to adapt or risk losing market share to China’s competitive edge. Despite a slowdown domestically in certain sectors, the ongoing demand for clean tech worldwide underscores the critical role these exports will continue to play in the global energy landscape.
About the Analysis
This report estimates the fossil fuel and CO2 emissions avoided globally due to China’s exports of solar, wind, electric vehicle, and battery technologies. The avoidance metrics are calculated based on the technology’s capacity to displace electricity from local power grids in importing nations.
Data Sources: The analysis integrates various sources, including customs data and emission statistics from reputable energy research entities. Usage of UN Comtrade bilateral data assists in attributing solar exports to their final markets to provide accurate estimates of emissions avoidance.
Chief Editor of Quincy City Beat — Quincy, MA's independent investigative newspaper covering Greater Boston and the entire Commonwealth of Massachusetts with fearless public accountability and free access for all readers.
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