Notre Dame’s Playoff Hopes Hang in the Balance After Rankings Slide
In a significant turn of events, the College Football Playoff Committee’s initial rankings have revealed a notable decline for Notre Dame, which has dropped seven places from the latest AP Poll. Analysts are univocal in their assessment: a loss to Miami this Saturday could spell the end of the Fighting Irish’s playoff aspirations.
While some might eagerly dismiss Notre Dame due to their unique circumstances, the notion of Saturday’s clash being an elimination game may be premature. With the Irish favored by seven points, a victory would render such discussions moot. Furthermore, two of Notre Dame’s final three games will take place at home, with their sole remaining away game set for a trip to Syracuse. Given this schedule, avoiding further losses seems a distinct possibility.
Beyond merely securing a win, the Irish may still have playoff potential even with a victory. Their current ranking could be inflated, as they sit above several two-loss teams in the Big Ten and SEC that boast ranked wins. Although another loss might negatively impact their standing, the extent of the drop would hinge on whether they fall to the consensus top team in the nation.
Alabama, currently ranked fifth in the CFP, has displayed inconsistency apart from an early win over Kentucky—a team projected to accumulate four losses by season’s end. ESPN attributes Alabama’s ranking to a decisive victory over Mississippi State, a squad that has struggled significantly, irrespective of Kamario Taylor’s presence.
Despite lacking standout victories, Notre Dame’s metrics remain compelling. They rank 11th in Strength of Record (SOR), 1st in Football Power Index (FPI), and 6th in Game Control. Notably, they are only seven points behind the top-ranked team. Should the Irish endure a loss, they could still secure a win against a respectable SMU team and potentially navigate back into the top 12 by season’s conclusion.
The competitive landscape of the Big Ten and SEC has seen teams consistently undermine each other throughout the current season, a trend likely to persist in the coming weeks. Unless an unexpected decision is made, such as a drastic plunge in Notre Dame’s rankings following a loss, they will remain in the playoff conversation as the final rankings approach. If they remain within the top 12, the inherent rules could facilitate their entry into the playoffs. Critics may also point out that after excluding the Irish last season, the committee may be inclined to include one of college football’s largest television markets this time around.
Chief Editor of Quincy City Beat — Quincy, MA's independent investigative newspaper covering Greater Boston and the entire Commonwealth of Massachusetts with fearless public accountability and free access for all readers.
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